米大統領候補ラルーシュも負けつつあると公言するイラク戦争の蟻地獄からの脱出法は撤退のみ

　転送、転載、引用、訳出、大歓迎！

　本日(2003/11/15)夕刻、米大統領に7回目の立候補中の「怪人」、リンドン・ラルーシュの運動の電網宝庫を、久々に覗いた。

　目立つ位置の大見出しの最新記事の題名は、「アメリカはイラク戦争に負けつつある」(The United States Is Losing the Iraq War)となっていた。

　 これは最早、ほとんど常識だが、わが分析と同じである。

　リンドン・ラルーシュの政治運動の母体の「ラルーシュ運動」のこの記事には、今年の春、2003年423日に発表した以下のような、わが観測と同じことが書いてある。

「ラルーシュ運動」曰く：「イラク軍事力は姿を隠した。どこかで消滅したのではない。今、貴方が見ている通りに、ずっと存在していたのだ」
("the Iraqi military 'disappeared.' It didn't vanish to nowhere -- it still existed. What you're now seeing:)

　リンドン・ラルーシュに関しては、様々な見方がある。何せ、今年で78歳ぐらいかな、第二次世界大戦中はインドで軍務に服していたようであり、共産党員から第4インターナショナル、いわゆる「トロッキスト」に転じ、さらに独立の運動を展開し、民主党に加わっているのだから、「怪人」と呼ぶしかない。

　私は、常に「文は人なり」の判断をするから、ともかく、発表されている文章を、いくつか、じっくり読んでみた。その上で、何人かの旧知のアメリカ人に、意見を求めた。

　おおむね、「大袈裟」とか、「予測が外れた」との返答を得たが、いずれも決定的ではない。つい最近、旧知のアメリカの労働組合関係者と会えたから、彼にも意見を求めてみた。

　この「アメリカの労働組合関係者」とは、12年前に、以下の質疑応答の経験がある。

　彼は結構、アメリカの政治事情にも詳しいので、身振りよろしく、即座に答えた。「ラルーシュはクレージーである」。

　しかし、「クレージー」は必ずしも「気違い」を意味しない。日本でもしょっちゅう言う「狂っている」とか「マニアック」の程度である。

　彼の「クレージー」の説明は、「ラルーシュは英国の王室がすべての謀略の中心だと主張する」ことであった。このことは、私も先刻承知であった。大英帝国の存在は歴史的事実なのだから、これも、決定的な認識の誤りとは言い難い。

　さらに彼は、ラルーシュ運動を、「カルト」だと言った。

　そこで私は、「宗教だけではなくて、社会主義とか共産主義とかいう運動の組織にも、カルトの要素があるのではないか」と聞くと、彼は、軽く笑って、頷いた。

　そういう状況なので、ともかく、以下の最新記事を全文紹介する。自分の目で心眼で読んで、独自に判断を下されたい。

----------　引用ここから　----------
http://www.larouchepub.com/other/2003/3044us_losing_iraq.html

This article appears in the November 14, 2003 issue of Executive Intelligence Review.

The United States Is
Losing the Iraq War
by Muriel Mirak-Weissbach

The shooting down of an American CH-47 helicopter in Fallujah on Nov. 2 by a surface-to-air missile -- one of four lethal encounters for American personnel that day -- continued the steady escalation and coordination of guerrilla military operations by the Iraqi resistance. That resistance has now, on several occasions, been able to select high-value occupation targets and to hit those targets at dramatic times, as well as to coordinate its actions with anti-occupation demonstrations. Military-operations coordination -- not Paul Wolfowitz' "sporadic attacks by bitter-enders" -- is also indicated by the dramatic increase in the number of daily attacks, now averaging over 30, twice the number of two months ago.

Reviewing the situation on Nov. 2, U.S. Presidential candidate Lyndon LaRouche pointed to the events around April 9, when Baghdad fell. Then, faced with the vast destructive force of American air power, "the Iraqi military 'disappeared.' It didn't vanish to nowhere -- it still existed. What you're now seeing: A decision was made. Since they could not defeat the strategic arsenal being deployed against them by the United States, they would take a lesson from Korea and Vietnam. And the Iraqis would say, 'We can't beat their weapons, but when we're close up to them, next to them, walking the same streets, in the same neighborhoods, and they have to deal with us man-to-man; if we're willing to take the brunt of that, we can win that war.' And, the Iraqi military is in the process, now, of winning the war.... This is not a mismanagement problem: The United States is losing the war! And, it's losing that war in the same degree that it lost the war in Indo-China."

Shi'ite Leadership Is Waiting

LaRouche's view has been corroborated by several regional experts. One European strategic analyst emphasized to EIR that the resistance, now largely focussed in Sunni-dominated central Iraq, could rapidly be extended nationally, when and if the Shi'ite leadership were to give the order. Currently, the Shi'ite majority is waiting to assume power through the political process of elections. If its majority position is not accepted -- as U.S. authorities have indicated it will not be -- then Shi'ite forces would be mobilized in the resistance.

Although the Shi'ite community has maintained its low profile thus far, certain developments indicate a possible, slow shift. The mayor of Najaf, one of the two holiest Shi'ite cities, called a strike on Nov. 5 to protest the utter lack of security, after the assassination of a judge investigating crimes of the Saddam Hussein regime. The occupying forces, by international law responsible for maintainng security, are preoccupied with protecting themselves.

An Arab strategic specialist in Kuwait told EIR on Nov. 3, that an informed Arab view is that the Nov. 1-2 attacks, one week after the audacious missile attacks against the U.S. occupation headquarters at the Rashid Hotel on Oct. 24, while Deputy Defense Secretary Wolfowitz was there, signalled a watershed, a qualitative escalation. Iraq's geographic size, in the heart of the Middle East, presents a situation which the Americans did not envisage; its extensive border is almost impossible to seal to prevent infiltration by pro-resistance forces. As this expert emphasized, American complaints about "foreign terrorists" ignore the fact that not only pro-Saddam Hussein elements are joining the resistance. Furthermore, given the history and character of the Iraqi people, they would never allow outside elements to dominate or lead any such struggle for liberation; foreign elements must be subordinating themselves to Iraqi leadership. And these foreigners could not function without receiving the support of the population: lodging, food, weapons.

This source reported that sentiment in favor of Saddam Hussein is being openly broadcast on Arab TV outlets, which show jubilating crowds of Iraqis after every major attack. In sum, the Arab perspective is that the Iraqi resistance will grow, and will, in the end, prevail, no matter how long it takes. The Iraqi resistance, initially, had encountered problems in its intelligence, which, according to experts, have since been solved. They have a good map of the U.S. deployments, methods, procedures, manpower, etc., and are therefore able to attack with precision, in a coordinated, deadly fashion. The general view is that about three-four months before the 2004 elections, the Bush Administration will be forced to withdraw. Although there is no indication that the Administration is planning such a course, the steadily-growing pressure against the Cheney faction, generated by LaRouche's now year-long mobilization to force Cheney out of office, is now felt and discussed throughout Washington. This -- given the Iraq situation on the ground as LaRouche characterized it -- is what makes such a withdrawal a very strong possibility.

On Nov. 5, Gen. Peter Pace of the Marine Corps, and vice chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, told the House Armed Services Committee that thousands of active duty and part-time National Guard and Reserve troops would go to Iraq early in 2004. He said the troops would be part of a rotation plan for the next year, and that the current troop strength of 132,000, could be reduced to 100,000 by May. The European strategic analyst cited above, spoke about a "conspiracy of incompetence" vis-a-vis Iraq on the side of the neo-conservatives in the Bush Administration. "And the U.S. Army on the ground has to pay the price for this arrogant incompetence." Now, when American military and intelligence officials talk to their non-American counterparts, there is no more hiding the "growing rage within the Army and the intelligence community" against the neo-conservatives, notably Dick Cheney, for what they have done in Iraq.
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　さて、私の読後の感想を述べると、イラクは、アメリカに取って、蟻地獄の穴なのである。

　蟻地獄と呼ばれるのは、周知のごとく、薄羽蜻蛉の幼虫が餌の虫を誘い込むために砂地に掘った穴のことである。英語では、羽蜻蛉を、Ant-lionと呼ぶ。つまり、蟻のライオンである。蟻地獄の穴は、Ant-lions' pitである。

　ここに誘い込まれたら、最後である。アメリカ兵には、穴に近づかずに、早く逃げることを勧めるしかない。直ちに撤退せよ！

　以上。

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