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『亜空間通信』292号(2002/07/04)
【超大国も満つれば欠くるか仰向けにのけぞるかアフガンで年貢の収め時破綻連続】
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転送、転載、引用、訳出、大歓迎！
いつかは来るべき時が来たのかもしれず、ここ5日間、2002年6月30から7月04日の間に、ついに超大国も、命脈が尽きたか、と想える事態が相次いだ。
日本の歴史上の名言、「奢る平家も久からず」「満つれば欠くる世の習い」「あおのけ（仰向け）にのけぞる」は、世界の歴史にも共通する現象の法則的な喝破である。いかな悪党にも「年貢の収め時」が来るのである。要は、あくまで執拗に追い掛け得るか、その時に「とどめを刺す」ことができるか否か、である。アメリカがヴェトナムで負けた時には、追っ手に力量が無かったのである。今度は、どうか。
以下、出現の順序は違うが、一番分かり易い失敗から、英米の不一致、アメリカの大手メディア、ニューヨークタイムズにまで出てきた「アフガン侵略失敗論」を続けて紹介する。
http://www.asyura.com/2002/war13/msg/363.html
アフガン誤爆事件、新郎新婦も死亡 【ロイター】 投稿者 ドメル将軍 日時 2002 年 7 月 04 日 01:16:19:(回答先: アフガニスタン・ジハードニュース（7/3） 投稿者 ドメル将軍 日時 2002 年 7 月 04 日 01:09:18)
［カブール ３日 ロイター］ アフガニスタン南部ウルズガン州で１日、米軍が結婚式場を誤爆したとされる事件で、死者には新郎新婦も含まれていたことが明らかになった。
同州で活動する開発支援団体の関係者が明かした。
アフガン当局は、この事件で４０人が死亡、約１００人が負傷したとしている。死者の多くは女性や子どもだという。
同国当局は、結婚式の出席者が伝統的に行われる祝砲を空に向けて撃ったところ、爆撃を受けたとしている。
一方、米軍は継続的な対空砲火を受け反撃したとしており、アフガン当局と合同で調査を開始している。
同団体関係者はスタッフの話として、結婚式出席者は周辺地域に国際部隊が展開していることを承知の上で祝砲を放ったとし、双方に責任があるとの見解を示した。
新郎は、カルザイ大統領とも交友のある地元有力者のおいに当たるという。
同大統領は事件に遺憾の意を表明、国民に祝砲を撃たないよう呼び掛けた。http://www.asyura.com/2002/war13/msg/293.html
＜アルカイダ掃討＞米英に亀裂？ 英高官が米の作戦を批判 投稿者 やまだ 日時 2002 年 7 月 01 日 00:26:43:＜アルカイダ掃討＞米英に亀裂？ 英高官が米の作戦を批判
３０日付の英紙サンデー・テレグラフは、米軍がアフガニスタンなどで進めているテロ組織アルカイダの掃討作戦をめぐり、英国との間で亀裂が広がっていると報じた。
英国首相府高官は同紙に対し、米軍の作戦について「地元に無神経で大失敗。地元民は逆にアルカイダへの共感を強めている」と批判した。
同紙によると、米軍は現在、パキスタン側に越境し、地元の自治の伝統を無視して手当たり次第に捜索、攻撃している。結婚祝いの銃声をアルカイダの活動と勘違いし、披露宴の会場に押し入った例もあった。
アフガニスタン駐留の英軍は米軍とたびたび対立、５月には米軍に通知せずに山岳部でアルカイダ掃討作戦に踏み切ったという。（ロンドン共同）（毎日新聞）
[6月30日13時50分更新]
以下紹介する阿修羅・戦争13掲示板の投稿の原文記事は、確かに、以下に存在する。
http://www.canoe.ca/Columnists/margolis_jun23.html
http://www.asyura.com/2002/war13/msg/291.html
アル・カーイダの中心勢力は200～300人程度、アフガン侵攻は結局のところ失敗 投稿者 ドメル将軍 日時 2002 年 6 月 30 日 20:51:28:Al-Qaida's numbers were grossly exaggerated by the Bush administration and U.S. media. Hardcore al-Qaida members never numbered more than 200-300. Claims that there were 5,000-20,000 al-Qaida fighters in Afghanistan were nonsense.
-- Eric Margolis
Anti-U.S. militants showing up all over
By ERIC MARGOLIS-- Contributing Foreign Editor
ZURICH--
According to a secret government report revealed last week by the New York Times, the U.S. invasion of Afghanistan not only "failed to diminish the threat to the United States," but actually complicated the U.S. counter-terrorism campaign by dispersing its radical foes across the Muslim world.
The small, tightly-knit leadership of Osama bin Laden's al-Qaida has been succeeded by a group of younger militants who have formed ad hoc alliances with other anti-U.S. groups from Morocco to Indonesia.
These groups now pose the most serious danger to the United States and will remain a potent threat for years to come.
This dismaying report confirms what this writer has been saying in columns and on CNN since 9/11.
A full-scale military invasion of Afghanistan would prove futile;
the correct response was intelligence and police work, not brute force.
Al-Qaida's numbers were grossly exaggerated by the Bush administration and U.S. media.
Hardcore al-Qaida members never numbered more than 200-300.
Claims that there were 5,000-20,000 al- Qaida fighters in Afghanistan were nonsense.
These wild exaggerations came from lumping Taliban tribal warriors with some 5,000 Islamic resistance fighters from Kashmir, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, the Philippines and Chinese-ruled Eastern Turkistan, none of whom were part of al-Qaida.
The reason 12,000 U.S., British and Canadian troops operating in Afghanistan can't find al-Qaida - a campaign that has so far cost over US$10 billion - is that there were few to begin with;
by now, most have slipped away through Pakistan.
Instead, the U.S. is getting mired in Afghan tribal politics by trying to maintain a regime in Kabul that will take orders from Washington.
Last week's much ballyhooed grand tribal council, or loya jirga, that "elected" CIA "asset" Hamid Karzai as national leader was a wildly expensive charade conducted under the guns of U.S. and British troops.
Karzai's "election" has cost Washington $5 billion in bribes and payoffs to Afghan warlords.
As soon as U.S. and British occupation troops decamp, Afghanistan will again dissolve into tribal chaos or fall under the control of Russia, which continues to arm and direct the Northern Alliance.Fury over Palestine
It's also becoming painfully clear that Afghanistan was never the true epicentre of anti-U.S. militancy, as Washington initially believed.
The real hotbeds of Islamic resistance to the United States lay in Egypt, Arabia, North Africa and Europe.
According to the leaked report in the Times, a loose network of anti-American groups has surfaced in these regions, united mainly by their fury over events in Palestine, America's impending invasion of Iraq, and opposition to America's political and economic domination in the Muslim World.
Osama bin Laden, be he dead or alive, and his al-Qaida movement have become irrelevant.
In truth, they were never much more than a symbol of hatred and defiance.
But their message, propagated by 9/11, has reverberated around the world.
The torch of anti-Americanism is being taken up by the "jihadi" movement - Muslim veterans of the war against the Soviets in Afghanistan during the 1980s - and by a younger generation of militants.
Sizeable numbers of anti-American militants have been uncovered in Europe and arrested by local police and intelligence forces, the only major success, to date, of the "war on terrorism."
But more hostile groups are springing up faster than they can be identified or neutralized.
Call this the privatization of warfare.
Many young Muslims despair their own feeble, corrupt, U.S.-dominated regimes will ever bring justice to the Palestinians, save Iraq from invasion by the U.S., or end what they view as oppressive American influence over their nations.
They are taking matters into their own hands by waging a personalized war against the United States and Israel, two nations that have become one in the eyes of the Muslim world.
Forty years ago, the Islamic world regarded the United States as its best friend and saviour.
Today, the two are on a collision course.
There is growing fear across the Muslim world that the Bush administration is being driven by backers of Israel and fundamentalist Christians into a modern anti-Islamic crusade.
Powell sidelined
The leaked report in the Times likely originated from Colin Powell's Department of State.
Powell is widely respected abroad as the administration's most intelligent and ethical member, but he has been almost totally sidelined because of his opposition to invading Iraq and waging a wider war against the Muslim world.
Foreign policy - particularly towards the Mideast and South/Central Asia - has been taken over by a hardline, ardently pro-Israel faction in the Pentagon and the office of Vice President Dick Cheney.
Powell may soon resign in disgust.
President Bush's National Security Advisor, Condoleezza Rice, should provide balance and nuance.
But she has shown herself a rigid ideologue with poor judgment and very limited understanding of the outside world.
She is in way over her head.
Bush is not getting the sound advice he needs.
As a result, he has been vacillating and contradicting himself for months.
Afghanistan, billed only last fall as a triumph for America and President Bush, is now looking less and less like a victory and more each day like the beginning of a long, bloody struggle that could and should have been avoided.
以上。