Why Syria May Be The Next Target/according to Sharon/Insight on the News - World/

http://www.insightmag.com/news/415921.html
Posted April 14, 2003
By Scott L. Wheeler

Insight on the News - World
Issue: 04/29/03

Why Syria May Be The Next Target
By Scott L. Wheeler
U.S. and coalition forces now canvassing Iraq for weapons of mass destruction (WMDs) may need to expand their search area, according to Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon. In December, Sharon told Israel's Channel 2 he has reviewed reports confirming that Saddam Hussein had transferred chemical and biological weapons to Syria. This involvement with Iraqi WMDs provoked veiled warnings from Washington, including expressions of alarm about the possibly related shipment by Syria of weapons to Iraq. Ambiguities abound, but there is speculation at senior levels that the Bush administration may be laying the groundwork for action to facilitate regime change in Damascus.

Warnings by Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld that Syria would be held "accountable" for aiding the Iraqi military with transfers of technology are being cited by diplomatic insiders in the region as indicating that Syria, and such client terrorist organizations as Hezbollah, may have had a deal with Saddam to store some of the Iraqi dictator's stockpile of chemical and biological weapons - even for their contingent use against Israel.

In hearings before the Senate Armed Services Committee the day after the fall of Baghdad, Undersecretary of Defense Paul Wolfowitz assured senators the Pentagon has no plans for military operations in Syria. But British Defense Secretary Geoff Hoon has made veiled threats.

The deputy ambassador and chief of public diplomacy for Syria, Imad Moustapha, strongly denies allegations that his country had military arrangements with Iraq. "Syria has never, ever, been involved in any military cooperation with the Iraqi government. Never. It has always been very critical of the Iraqi government. This has not changed because we opposed war against Iraq," Moustapha tells Insight. He also casts doubts about the involvement of Hezbollah. "The Syrian-Iraqi border has not seen any trafficking of any weapons or chemical materials or anything. Hezbollah - which is based in Lebanon, has been active against Israeli occupation forces in Lebanon - has not a single channel of access to Iraq through Syria." Lebanon is a client state of Syria.

But a U.S. State Department official tells Insight, "We continue to watch the Syria-Iraq border quite closely, and we have reason to believe that Syria continues to engage in transshipment activity."

For some time all the administration has been willing to do publicly is to raise concerns, both acute and oblique, about possible Syrian aid to Iraq. In the second week of April, however, the Daily Telegraph of London reported that discussions between President George W. Bush and British Prime Minister Tony Blair had given priority to the Syria issue. "One of the main subjects on the agenda of the Belfast summit was ... Syria, the Pentagon's next likely target for 'regime change,' amid suspicions it allowed Saddam Hussein to transfer weapons of mass destruction within its borders," according to the Telegraph. "Some U.S. officials also are convinced that [Syrian President Bashar] Assad has actively collaborated with Saddam and agreed to take weapons, including Scud missiles." The Telegraph cited unnamed Bush administration officials as the source of the story.

Until recently the administration has sought to keep a lid on its intelligence concerning these matters, fearing that it could complicate the war in Iraq. But leaks about human intelligence and satellite imagery have been building to a crescendo as pressure increases on the Bush administration to find the WMDs it insisted Iraq was maintaining.

In October 2002, the CIA issued a report, Iraq's Weapons of Mass Destruction Programs, that concluded: "Since inspections ended in 1998, Iraq has maintained its chemical-weapons effort, energized its missile program and invested more heavily in biological weapons." Speaking of Iraq's chemical capability, the CIA report says, "Baghdad has begun renewed production of chemical-warfare agents, probably including mustard, sarin, cyclosarin and VX." The report indicates that U.N. inspections put a crimp in the production of chemical agents and suggests that it is not at the capacity that it was at the time of the 1991 Persian Gulf War, but warns that "VX production and agent storage life probably have been improved." The CIA approximates the stockpile at "a few hundred metric tons of [chemical-weapons] agents."

The CIA report raises the level of concern about biological weapons, observing: "All key aspects - R&D [research and development], production and weaponization - of Iraq's offensive BW [biological-weapons] program are active, and most elements are larger and more advanced than they were before the gulf war." According to this CIA report, Saddam had greatest success with his biological weapons, noting: "Iraq has some lethal and incapacitating BW agents and is capable of quickly producing and weaponizing a variety of such agents, including anthrax, for delivery by bombs, missiles, aerial sprayers and covert operatives, including potentially against the U.S. homeland." The report suggests Iraq was able to develop biological-weapons programs that remained out of the sight of U.N. weapons inspectors because "Baghdad has established a large-scale, redundant and concealed BW-agent production capability, which includes mobile facilities; these facilities can evade detection, are highly survivable and can exceed the production rates Iraq had prior to the gulf war."

Saddam was less successful at obtaining delivery systems for the Iraqi chemical- and biological-weapons programs, says the CIA. It estimated his arsenal at "a few dozen Scud-variant SRBMs [short-range ballistic missiles] with ranges of 650 to 900 kilometers [403 to 558 miles]," plus an arsenal of "al-Samoud and Ababil-100 SRBMs." Nonetheless, according to the report, "Iraq has managed to rebuild and expand its missile-development infrastructure under sanctions." It did this through intermediary nations willing to procure banned components on behalf of Iraq, the report says.

The crown jewel of Saddam's delivery system was the Unmanned Aerial Vehicle Program, which the CIA report says is most effective for delivering biological weapons. Baghdad's first attempt involved a MiG-21. According to the CIA it failed as an unmanned vehicle, but when manned it became an effective platform as spray tanks were used to carry chemical and biological agents. In the mid-to-late 1990s, Baghdad "attempted to convert some of its L-29 jet-trainer aircraft" into unmanned aerial vehicles "fitted with chemical- and biological-warfare spray tanks," the report says.

But with U.S. and coalition forces scouring the Iraqi desert in search of large stores of chemical and biological weapons and related delivery systems, all that has turned up so far is enough evidence for Washington to conclude that Saddam had such weapons and was preparing to use them. It is this certainty that has been dragging Syria into the equation - an uncomfortable spot for a nation widely believed to sponsor terrorist groups involved in a jihadist war against Israel. Syria's Moustapha is quick to respond that, despite its opposition to the invasion of Iraq, his country backed U.N. Resolution 1441 calling for Iraq to disarm immediately. He also says that Syria "supported stringent inspections in Iraq" for WMDs.

Despite Syria's protestations, however, there continues to be a steady stream of accusations from the Bush administration. Secretary of State Colin Powell put it directly in a speech to the American Israel Public Affairs Committee, declaring: "Syria can continue direct support for terrorist groups and the dying regime of Saddam Hussein, or it can embark on a different and more hopeful course." Moustapha says U.S. claims of Syria's involvement with Iraqi WMDs and all of the strong statements from Washington relating to these matters reflect the aggressive U.S. agenda in the Middle East. "These accusations only help one agenda - the agenda of 'Who's next?' and 'Now that we are through with Iraq, let's attack somebody else.'"

In late March the Washington Post reported that "Damascus is concern[ed] that top officials in the Bush administration have targeted Syria as the next country for a change in government." The Post article points to Secretary of Defense Rumsfeld, Undersecretary of Defense for Policy Douglas Feith and Rumsfeld confidante Richard Perle as advocating a "stronger military approach and confrontation with Iraq and Syria for their support of terrorists." Or, as the Washington Times editorialized on April 9, "To avoid meeting the same fate as Saddam, Mr. Assad would do well to consider getting out of the terrorism business."

Scott L. Wheeler is a reporter for Insight.