「周辺事態」だ、有事立法だ、武器使用だ、改憲だと永田町の先生が大はし
ゃぎしているのが牧歌的に思えるほど、ユーゴ情勢は混沌・緊迫の度合いを増
しています。最新の日経新聞の報道を一部引用。
> ロシア、「空爆国にミサイル照準」指示・対ＮＡＴＯ姿
>
勢先鋭化
>
> 【モスクワ９日＝坂井光】北大西洋条約機構（ＮＡＴＯ）軍の対ユ
> ーゴスラビア攻撃が激化するなか、ロシアがＮＡＴＯへの対立姿
> 勢を先鋭化し始めた。エリツィン大統領は９日、ＮＡＴＯが地上軍
> を派遣すればロシアが対抗手段を取ることを初めて示唆。セレ
> ズニョフ下院議長も同日、「大統領が戦略ミサイルの照準を空爆
> 参加各国に向けるよう指示した」と発言した。さらに、大統領はロ
> シア・ベラルーシ連邦へのユーゴ加盟に支持を表明、ＮＡＴＯの
> 東方拡大に対抗するロシア圏の西方拡大に前向きな姿勢も示し
> た。
「戦略ミサイルの照準」って・・・、要するに核攻撃ということだからこれ
は穏やかではありません。またエリツインは酔っ払ってるなと笑えない。
これがロシアの見栄と言うかメンツを保とうという必死のデモンストレーシ
ョンであることは明らかです。その意味で本気で核攻撃を考えているのでは
ないと考えるべきでしょう。しかしミロシェビッチもクリントンも別に殺人
鬼ではなく、しかし殺戮行為をやめないなのは要するにメンツでしょう。昔
の日本の軍国主義者も、小林よしのりがスローガン的に（東亜解放とか）主
張するように何か大目標があったのでなく、いったんやり出した手前、後に
引けなくなって、あとはお決まりのズルズルだったというのが真相です。そ
の結果の重大性から、動機も重大であると思うのはインテリの観念論です。
権力者の詰まらぬ意地の張り合いが世界を滅ばさないと言い切れないとこ
ろが世紀末の現在の怖いところです。
BOSTON GLOBE紙 - 04/08/99も、モスクワ発で、ロシアの極東軍司令官で三
ツ星の将軍Viktor Chechevatovが、「NATO攻撃は第３次世界大戦の始まり」と
発言したと伝えています。この記事の抜粋を添付します。
「ユーゴ攻撃はロシア攻撃のリハーサルだ」とこのタカ派の将軍はアジって
いるのですが、別に解任されるわけでなく、それどころか世論調査ではロシア
の３分の２の人がこの意見に賛成とか。
思い出せばバルカンで始まったあの第１次大戦も、最初は誰もあんな大事に
なると思っていなかった。今回の空爆もクリントンの意図は単なる「ガツー
ン」で、片がつくと軽く考えていたのでしょう。
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RUSSIA'S MILITARY
SEES
A BALKAN OPPORTUNITY
By David Filipov, Globe Staff
BOSTON GLOBE - 04/08/99: MOSCOW - Remember ''The Peacemaker''?
The
1997 Hollywood flick in which a maverick Russian general, disgruntled
over the sad state of his once proud country, steals nuclear warheads
for Bosnian Serb terrorists?
That was the movie. Here is the reality.
Today's maverick is Viktor Chechevatov, a three-star general and
commander of ground forces in Russia's Far East region, who is
convinced that NATO's attacks on Yugoslavia are ''the beginning of
World War III.''No matter how often Russian President Boris N. Yeltsin
says Russia will stay away from the fighting, Chechevatov keeps making
public calls for Moscow to send arms and men, preferably with him in
charge, to fight the American-led alliance alongside the Serbs.
But there are other forces in the Russian leadership who listen when
Chechevatov and other military leaders say that World War III has
begun,and that Moscow's best move is to aid the Serbs.
''There exists the risk of the military pressuring the civilian
leadership for a military reaction,'' said Alexander Pikayev, an
analyst for the Carnegie Center in Moscow. ''The political leadership
is under greater pressure from the leftist and nationalist opposition,
which wants to use the Balkan crisis to come to power.''
But Russia still has 6,660 nuclear warheads. Senior generals have
warned that Moscow would use them if it felt threatened, and the
Northern Fleet test-fired a ballistic missile in exercises last week.
But what does ''threatened'' mean? Russia's defense minister, Igor
Sergeyev, has said that the events in Yugoslavia are worrisome because
they ''could happen anywhere.'' Many Russians worry NATO could use
Kosovo as a precedent to intervene in Russia's breakaway province of
Chechnya,or in any of a number of hot spots along proposed routes for
oil pipelines out from the Caspian Sea.
''The bombing of Yugoslavia could turn out in the very near future to
be just a rehearsal for similar strikes on Russia,'' Chechevatov wrote
in a recent letter to Yeltsin. Nearly two-thirds of Russians agree
with the general, according to a poll by the Moscow-based Public
Opinion Foundation.
Someone is happy about what the Balkans crisis may do for Russia's
military: defense factories and military leaders for whom reduced
spending on the army has been a disaster; officers who for the first
time in years are holding exercises; officers like Chechevatov, who
recently completed exercises that ''had nothing to do with the Balkans
'' in which his troops practiced shooting down Tomahawk cruise
missiles.
A long-term danger posed by the hawks' increasing influence is that
political moderates, and those who favor constructive relations with
the West, are finding their voices drowned out by what one legislator,
Alexi Arbatov, called ''the feeling of helpless rage'' experienced
by
many Russians. This may be the lasting legacy of the Balkan conflict
for Russia.
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****************************
Masahiko Aoki
青木雅彦
btree@pop11.odn.ne.jp
****************************